Uva Rebellion 2014

Over the last few weeks, I was thinking of writing something bit more different to what I have been writing on My Views. Here, I’m trying to give some perspective to the recently concluded Uva Provincial Council elections (at the outset I have to make a confession that I’m not a political analyst and I will try to give a balanced/impartial view). 

Uva elections 2014 is important in several ways. One being that Uva is the place of historic rebellion, Uva-Wellassa Uprising. (though the rebels were not able to win against the ruling British regime). This time Uva Rebellion was between ruling United People’s Freedom Alliance (UPFA) and the United National Party (UNP). Ironically, analogous to the 1818 Uva-Wellassa Uprising, the rebels (in this case UNP, including JVP) didn’t win this time also. 

Secondly, I think that this election results gave a very strong message to the UPFA government that there are crucial things that they need to address if they were to remain in power. Further, the election results have put the government at odds as to what they should be doing next, going for the Presidential Election first (before their popularity further fades away!) or for the General Elections first. This article also  discusses about it in little detail. Finally, the main opposition UNP have gained some gusto after many years of losing elections, loss of strong party leaders, loss of voter faith, etc. 

The Uva fight back

The most interesting thing about 2014 Uva Elections is that Uva voters have been able bring back most needed equilibrium to the political market/environment. That is the opposition has emerged again as a formidable force, which is my expectation as well. There is no doubt that any country needs a strong opposition to ensure that the government is doing the right things by the citizens. The below table gives a comparison of the Uva 2009 and 2014 provincial council elections;

Results definitely say that the government need to seriously think about what went wrong. (true that they have done a lot compared to all the other governments, but end of the day voters will decide what they need). Also UPFA is placed at cross roads strategically as to what should be the next step given the results; whether to hold the Presidential Elections first or the General Elections.

UNP story

The United National Party has in the recent past become the "Ugly National Party" due to serious internal problems that they have been dealing with. To date these issues are prevailing, I believe. That’s why they have had to create several different types of leaders within the party in an effort to keep the internal crisis under control, or at least to show the frustrated voters that everything is fine! However, there wasn’t any difference in their campaign as compared to the previous campaigns which they lost painfully. Rather, voters’ “enough-is-enough” attitude, prevailing drought conditions at the time in Uva and government’s disproportionate focus on one district rather than both in Uva lead them to the strong results compared to 2009.     

JVP the third force

JVP the third force; my view is that they did remain the third for all their life and they will continue to remain so for the indefinite future. The reasons for this, I would prefer to look from the demand & supply point of view as well as market size perspective (as I’m always used to look at things, in finance!).

The main theme (supply) of People’s Liberation Front (JVP) is the revolution (as far as I know. Have a look at their manifesto anyway). The demand is certainly not that. Because, I know for sure that I don’t need a revolution, as I believe that there won’t be any benefit of a so called revolution (even if it happens successfully I don’t think it will be a better solution) Similarly, the vast majority in the country is not looking for a revolution to reach a certain better state, like me! Hence, what they supply is not in huge demand for it to be a profitable offer to JVP and the vote population. Also the addressable current market size for any political party is the 14.2 million voter population in Sri Lanka. As I explained in my first point, this market is not looking for a revolution. Further, this market consists of different ethnicities (mainly Singhalese), religions (mainly Buddhist), languages (mainly Sinhala), genders (50:50 male to female), etc.  Of this they are targeting the poor, rural, pro-revolution communities which do not add up to 50% of the voter population given the increasing middle class, changing economic structures, more global citizenry, etc. If JVP were to be successful with their offer, they need to see at least 50% of the voter population demanding revolution, which I think will never happen (that’s why I mentioned that they will remain the third force for the INDEFINITE future! But, I should qualify my saying that they may be second or first force if they change their offer, which they are doing. But, that offer is going to be very similar to what is currently being offered by UPFA or UNP.) 

The bottomeline

Uva elections 2014 has enabled the power of people again.  However, it is doubtful whether it will be the start of a rebellion that will topple the incumbent government. The JVP will live their fantasy, unless they offer what is in demand.