Saturday, October 31, 2015

TPP, the never seen formula for success

Recently, I came across thistweet by a well-known Professor, who, as usual, tries to argue that the recently signed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) was a once in life time opportunity Sri Lanka missed. It was not the first time he voiced his dissatisfaction over this, as this earlier tweet of him says, with a link to the New York Times article



Well the learned Professor must be praising the TPP for its merits to countries like us in the APAC, I thought! Is that true? If yes, what is in it for us? How does it help countries like us? And how are we disadvantaged due to not being a signee to the Pact, as he claims in his tweet?

With these questions in mind, I tried to find anything in the public domain that would help answer these questions. But, it was very difficult to even find a draft of an agreement signed by any nation. But, as the New York Times article which the Professor shared says, “The pact, part of Mr. Obama’s strategy to balance China’s economic ascent, would knit together a largest-of-its-kind trading system in the Pacific”. Further, as the Office of the United States Trade Representative puts it in its website, it is another Made in America product which is aimed at “Leveling the playing field for American workers & American businesses”. As thisarticle by Koichi Hamada highlights “with the TPP, the US is catching a big fish with small bait. But the increased trade and investment flows brought about by the TPP’s ratification and implementation will benefit even the countries that must make larger sacrifices”. So, it is evident from these that this is not a Pact deliberated for the bilateral benefit of signees, rather to largely fulfill unitary requirements of one signee. (also not forgetting the fact that USA is heading to an election and that they need to give the US citizens something if they were to be in power. Further, their efforts to come out of the GFC and the subsequent recession via Fed lead measures have not really worked out and the Europe is also in really bad shape). 

The non-existent Free World
If I go to mainstream media, capital market or listen to any politician, I’m made to understand that we live in a globalized Free World where there are no barriers to trade. (or for years, from the Imperial times, they are boasting of Free Trade). Further, to facilitate such free trade or the free world, they invented apparatus like World Trade Organization, etc. If this is the case, why on earth do we need these other Trade Agreements, which I don’t even know whether override the already existing WTO or other stipulations, to benefit countries? May be this so-called Free World is non-existent and it only exist in documents. Still they are talking about Trade Liberalization and also at the same time some form of protectionism. (I know it is easier said than done!).   

Different views
I think it is worthwhile looking at different views so that we can form some sort of understanding that is not partial or biased. As I mentioned above that this agreement is not something drafted transparently, as the US Senator Bernie Sanders points out in thisarticle. Further, I also think that we should look at merits and demerits of previous Trade Pacts that countries and regions have signed before. Just because it is a very new pact and that the world is in a shaky situation, we should not just opt to this. (I don’t think that it is easy to reverse it once we penned it!). At least, if the Professor points out the great benefits that we derived from any such agreement with other nations (like SL and India Free Trade Agreement, etc), that would be greatly appreciable. I know of this article by economistMartin Feldstein, wherein he argues that trade agreements by Chile with USA have benefitted both.     

Bottomline
As I conclude the post, I have to mention that I do not personally know the Professor nor have I met him. Hence, I do not have anything personal rather than my own reactions to his thoughts. Honestly, I accept some of his thoughts on some other topics like the Appointments to Government positions which appeared in ft.lk as an article, etc. But, on the TPP I have my doubts and it may be true that I’m also one of the Sri Lankans swimming in the Pond called Sri Lanka listening to only our Mass Media such that I’m amazed why countries should go for these types of pacts, as the Professor mentioned in his Ravaya article. I hope that he may also write about the great aspects of the TPP and how it benefits us in an already (non)existent so-called Free World (which is assumed to be facilitated by apparatus like WTO, etc) where there are tariffs to protect their interest, in country, and pacts to protect their interests elsewhere. 

Thought to share this and wrap up. 


Friday, October 23, 2015

Follow the herd! Win or lose?

It’s been a while since I last posted on My Views. I was attracted to a very interesting stock this time, Hayleys Fibre PLC (HEXP). HEXP is a subsidiary of diversified holdings, HayleysPLC. HEXP is an exporter of coir fibre. However, they generate approx. 15% - 20% of its revenue from the local market. They manufacture a variety of products which fall under five main categories, Erosion control, growing media, horticulture, bedding and upholstery and industrial fibre. In terms of revenue Asia (I assume Russia is also categorized under this by the company) and Europe account for about 75% of their export revenue while the balance is split between Japan and USA. (refer below Sale by region graph, Sourced from Company’s latest published Annual Report).



Company going forward
As per the latest annual report, the management intend to focus on the following in order to grow revenue and increase profitability from the business:

  • -       More focus on erosion control, specifically to focus and rationalize the product portfolio and consolidate business with more emphasis on value added products (I hope it the most profitable product category and they will stop producing loss making products);
  • -       Invest in new technologies (hope they will increase efficiency and also reduce operating costs);
  • -       A backward integration project (this should help reduce raw material costs);
  • -       Energy saving initiatives; and
  • -       Aggressive marketing at the Joint Venture company level.


With this in mind it is good to look at historical performance to get an idea about how they have performed. (refer below for profitability ratios of HEXP). The performance numbers says the story that HEXP is operating in a very competitive market (globally competing) and are a price taker when it comes to sourcing raw materials.



As a result, returns on capital has been shockingly low. (refer the ROIC chart below). 



Recent explosive growth
At the beginning of this month, REXP was at LKR44.90 (6 October 2015) and as of my writing the stock appreciated rapidly to reach LKR88.40 as 97% return in less than a month. (refer the graph below).



As far as I know, there was no any significant news about the company which should trigger this type of appreciation. (as usual, may be market possesses some information which I’m not privy to).

However, I was interested to find out a reason for this. From what I understand, one reason may be the recent drastic depreciation in the Sri Lankan Rupee. Hence, technically, HEXP being an export company become price competitive in the market and their foreign currency earnings are now converted to higher LKR value. To see how this plays, I ran a correlation analysis in to HEXP’s revenue and LKR/USD to see if they are correlated. However, I was surprised to see that they show a negative .0.8240 correlation.

Alternatively, it is merely due to excessive retail participation due to some market rumour and subsequent herd behavior where everyone else jumped in to enjoy the rally.   

HEXP valuation
In order to value the shares of HEXP, I conducted a discounted cash flow valuation, as I usually do. As always, the valuation is based on assumptions made by me and I certainly do not possess expert knowledge as to how this business operate (but I think my assumption here are more generous than in any other case). However, I have used assumptions that I believe are reasonable and I would be glad to change them and see the impact on valuation if you can come up with more robust assumptions.

My cost of capital calculation is based on few parameters like beta of 1.17 (against All Share Index) for the stock which was taken from Colombo Stock Exchange, risk free rate of 9.85% (current 10 year Sri Lanka treasury bond rate in the market), Equity Risk Premium of 8.00% (my subjective judgment as I currently don’t have a scientific method to calculate, I will soon rectify this), pre-tax cost of debt of 9.50% and a tax rate of 15.31%.

On the tax rate I want to specifically mention that the company’s export earnings are only taxed at 12% concessionary rate while other earnings are taxed at normal 28% rate. Hence, I used a weighted average tax rate for cash flow calculations. Equity and debt weights of 79.59% and 20.41% were used respectively. Using these assumptions I derived a cost of capital for the firm of 16.93%.

The other assumptions are as per the below calculations.

Based on all these, I derived an equity value of c. LKR367.67 of which about 88% is coming from non-operating assets. These non-operating assets consist of Investment Property (property in Ekala that is rented), investment in joint venture company (carrying value of 50% ownership in Bonterra Lanka Ltd, which is equivalent to 50% of the net assets value of the entity) and other financial assets (investment in unquoted shares of Toyo Cushion Lanka Pvt Ltd and Rileys Pvt Ltd which are valued by them based on DCF method).

The derived value gives a per share value of LKR45.96 per share of REXP. The market price as of my writing of the share was LKR88.40 which is 92% higher than my valuation.



Bottomline
As I always say, I’m a very bad trader and every time I try to profit from this type of stock rallies, I end up buying in at the peak. So, now I tend not to join the bandwagon. But, if you are good at trading please go ahead and do it. But, if you are not, please be careful as the stock is currently heavily overvalued as per my valuation (you are welcome to argue with me on my valuation). If you are a believer in technicals, then be mindful as it is now in the overbought territory and a similar fashion drop is also all possible.