Over the last few weeks, I was thinking of
writing something bit more different to what I have been writing on My Views. Here, I’m trying to give some perspective to the recently concluded Uva Provincial
Council elections (at the outset I have to make a confession that I’m not a
political analyst and I will try to give a balanced/impartial view).
Uva
elections 2014 is important in several ways. One being that Uva is the place of
historic rebellion, Uva-Wellassa Uprising. (though the rebels were not able to win against the ruling British regime). This
time Uva Rebellion was between ruling United People’s Freedom Alliance (UPFA)
and the United National Party (UNP). Ironically, analogous to the 1818
Uva-Wellassa Uprising, the rebels (in this case UNP, including JVP) didn’t win
this time also.
Secondly, I think that this election results gave a very strong
message to the UPFA government that there are crucial things that they need to
address if they were to remain in power. Further, the election results have put
the government at odds as to what they should be doing next, going for the
Presidential Election first (before their popularity further fades away!)
or for the General Elections first. This article also discusses about it in little
detail. Finally, the main opposition UNP have gained some gusto after many years of
losing elections, loss of strong party leaders, loss of voter faith, etc.
The
Uva fight back
The most interesting thing about 2014 Uva
Elections is that Uva voters have been able bring back most needed equilibrium
to the political market/environment. That is the opposition has emerged again
as a formidable force, which is my expectation as well. There is no doubt that
any country needs a strong opposition to ensure that the government is doing
the right things by the citizens. The below table gives a comparison of the Uva
2009 and 2014 provincial council elections;
Results definitely say that the government
need to seriously think about what went wrong. (true that they have done a lot
compared to all the other governments, but end of the day voters will decide
what they need). Also UPFA is placed at cross roads strategically as to what
should be the next step given the results; whether to hold the Presidential Elections
first or the General Elections.
UNP story
The United National Party has in the recent
past become the "Ugly National Party" due to serious internal problems that they
have been dealing with. To date these issues are prevailing, I believe. That’s
why they have had to create several different types of leaders within the party
in an effort to keep the internal crisis under control, or at least to show the
frustrated voters that everything is fine! However, there wasn’t any difference
in their campaign as compared to the previous campaigns which they lost painfully.
Rather, voters’ “enough-is-enough” attitude, prevailing drought conditions at
the time in Uva and government’s disproportionate focus on one district rather
than both in Uva lead them to the strong results compared to 2009.
JVP
the third force
JVP
the third force; my view is that they did remain the third for all their life
and they will continue to remain so for the indefinite future. The reasons for
this, I would prefer to look from the demand & supply point of view as well
as market size perspective (as I’m always used to look at things, in finance!).
The
main theme (supply) of People’s Liberation Front (JVP) is the revolution (as
far as I know. Have a look at their manifesto anyway).
The demand is certainly not that. Because, I know for sure that I don’t need a
revolution, as I believe that there won’t be any benefit of a so called
revolution (even if it happens successfully I don’t think it will be a better
solution) Similarly, the vast majority in the country is not looking for a
revolution to reach a certain better state, like me! Hence, what they supply is
not in huge demand for it to be a profitable offer to JVP and the vote
population. Also the addressable current market size for any political party is the 14.2 million voter population in
Sri Lanka. As I explained in my first point, this market is not looking for a
revolution. Further, this market consists of different ethnicities (mainly
Singhalese), religions (mainly Buddhist), languages (mainly Sinhala), genders
(50:50 male to female), etc. Of this
they are targeting the poor, rural, pro-revolution communities which do not add
up to 50% of the voter population given the increasing middle class, changing
economic structures, more global citizenry, etc. If JVP were to be successful
with their offer, they need to see at least 50% of the voter population
demanding revolution, which I think will never happen (that’s why I mentioned
that they will remain the third force for the INDEFINITE future! But, I should
qualify my saying that they may be second or first force if they change their
offer, which they are doing. But, that offer is going to be very similar to
what is currently being offered by UPFA or UNP.)
The
bottomeline
Uva elections 2014 has enabled the power of
people again. However, it is doubtful
whether it will be the start of a rebellion that will topple the incumbent
government. The JVP will live their fantasy, unless they offer what is in
demand.
