Everyone is now talking
about global oil prices as it recently hit a new bottom (below USD30/barrel). A
look at the global oil market (if you are trying to understand the market),
will direct you to different things, such that; we hear about Brent, WTI, etc.,
Commodity markets/exchanges (NYMEX, ICE, etc), instruments like Spot, Futures,
etc. (if you want to study these things, log on to this please). Anyway, my aim
in this post is not to look at global oil markets but to give you an account on
how the Sri Lankan markets work in the face of the global dynamics.
Structure
and economic importance
The Ministry of Petroleum
Resources Development acts as the policy making and chief accounting body for
four entities; Ceylon Petroleum Corporation, Ceylon Petroleum Storage Terminals
Pvt Ltd, Petroleum Resources Development Secretariat and Polipto Lanka Pvt Ltd. Sri Lanka’s annual fuel bill is c. USD
4.5 billion. (this includes both Crude Oil and Refined Products imports). To
give you some context, this is about 25% of country’s total import bill and
approx. 50% of the export bill. However, due to recent sharp drop in oil prices import bill has almost halved as of November 2015 and its share as a
percent of total imports has dropped to 14%. (Note: Crude oil imports & Crude oil (CIF value LKR mn) for 2015 are for the 1H15, total USD value from Jan - Oct period)
Government’s revenue
from taxes on petroleum is as depicted in the below table: (it actually does
not represent a major part of it’s revenue as it is claimed to be in the media
and in political circles).
Sri
Lanka petroleum market
Sri Lankan petroleum market
is a regulated duopoly. Ceylon Petroleum Corporation (CPC) and Lanka IOC PLC (a
subsidiary of Indian Oil Corporation Ltd) are the two players in this market. Apart
from fuel importation and distribution in Sri Lanka these two players are also
involved in the lubricants business, bunkering. Bituman and other services. (in
which the competition is very different and that discussion I will reserve for
another post, as my focus here is to talk about fuels).
CPC is engaged in import of
Crude as well as refined products while LIOC sources refined, bulk fuel, from
international markets. CPC actually imports three types of crude, namely;
Light Crude Oil (has not been imported since 2014), Murban Crude Oil and Oman
Export Blend. LIOC is said to possess 18% market share in the domestic fuel retail
market (as per their latest published Annual Report. However, the overall
market share, looking at sales quantum, is about 13%).
CPC is struggling with
some structural problems as pointed out in the Annual Report.
“..Murban
crude oil which gives a better yield, helping to increase the refinery margin.
The Murban crude oil is only produced by Abudabi National Oil Company in Abu
Dhabi and hence has a very limited supply with only 10% of the production
coming to the open market in Asia. However, there is speculation that this 10%
will also likely to be further reduced with the recent commissioning of a new
refinery owned by ADNOC in UAE. This might have a negative impact on the
procurement of Murban crude oil by CPC in future and hence will need to explore
for alternative crude oils compatible with the current refinery configuration”.
Sri Lanka faced this similar
problem when the US imposed sanctions on Iran as CPC’s refinery is,
understandably, best suited to refine Iranian Crude.
Further the Annual Report
points that “Making the situation worst,
the CEB demand for fuel oil has drastically reduced with the commissioning of
Norachcholai Coal Power Plant compelling CPC to look for alternative avenues to
market the excess fuel oil produced at refinery. With a highly unstable demand
for thermal power generation coupled with a very low demand for the local
industry, the refinery is facing problems of disposing around 1,400 Metric Tons
of excess fuel oil per day”. As a result, they have had to sell/export the
excess at very low prices.
The
Duopoly
As I mentioned, the Retail
Fuel business in Sri Lanka is a regulated duopoly. The government run CPC
accounts for c.85 - 87% of the market while the balance is shared by LIOC. The table
below shows the financial performance of both entities. (Please note that LIOC
is a March Company while CPC is a December company. However, 2014 figures are
from Jan-Dec 2014 for both and 2015 figures are for Jan – Sept 2015 for both
companies, for comparison purposes. Also note that figures are in LKR millions).
To get a better
understanding it is essential to look at the performance ratios which are
produced below. (Keep in mind that two years of data analysis may be not enough
to get a better picture).
To get an understanding
about the financial positions of the two entities I have reproduced their
Balance Sheets (as at CYE14 and Sept 2015). The accompanying ratio analysis
shows a comparison of them. Capital structure of CPC is not helping at all, as per the analysis.
Operationally, CPC is
understandably employing around 5,800 staff (equivalent to 50% of the staff of
all the State Owned Industrial Enterprises. Statistic from Central Bank of Sri
Lanka). However, LIOC only employs around 174 staff members as per there
disclosures in the CSE. This converts to Revenue per Staff figure of LKR 290.65 million for LIOC and LKR 48.96 million for the counterpart, CPC.
Similarly, CPC runs 1193 Fuel Stations island-wide.
LIOC, on the other hand, operates 179 Fuel Stations.
In terms of sales, local
sales of refined products are about 4.4 million metric tons. (table for total
local sales and CPC sales). LIOC sells c.0.5 million MT (555,918 MT in 2014
FYE, 584,436 MT in 2015 FYE).
Finally, I’d like to come to
the most interesting bit, the retail fuel prices in the local market. The chart below
gives the CPC’s crude import prices over last several years. (LIOC does not
import crude). As per the CBSL’s most recent Economic Weekly publication the
2015 December import price was USD41.21 per barrel. (this is not directly comparable to
world market price due to many reasons. But its trajectory is not substantially different
from the global movements).
Now look at the local market
retail prices of different versions of fuel used by people. In the political
arena, different numbers are thrown by different people but without any basis
(but just with the intention of attaining political mileage out of it. Once, I
can remember, one of the current government’s ministers, during the campaign,
mentioned that CPC is taxed unnecessarily to fund the activities of former
regime’s family). So, it is our duty to do our own research to see what is
actually happening.
Why
not reduce local fuel prices?
The above is a common
question every one raised in the recent past, as they know the global market has
collapsed. (no one ask the opposite of this question when the global market climbs
up). But, that’s human nature.
The government has reported
that they can’t give any further reductions as they have got to deal with a bad
fiscal situation plus and they want to make up for the losses they made while
prices were high.(essentially the people have had to pay for the state sector
inefficiency). Inefficiencies are partly due to CPC’s financial situation and
its inability to invest in its infrastructure and technology. (one reason being
fuel was sold at subsidized prices when global prices were very high). On the
other hand, even though the price of oil in USD terms dropped significantly,
the LKR has also depreciated significantly over last year or so. Hence, the LKR
value of the imports have not dropped in a similar passion.
Hence, Sri Lankan companies/individuals
can’t be expected to be benefitted even if the oil prices are at historic lows
in the world markets. However, may be we are being benefitted from the reduced
import bill such that we might have avoided a greater crisis due to BoP problems
had our import bill remained at USD4 billion levels.
Will you be willing to take
the risk of changing oil price. (Nowadays, quickly and rapidly changing). Of
course, you answer will be most likely be a ‘yes’. In this scenario, we should be prepared to accept higher prices if world prices increase. (that may sound little harsh, isn't it). If this wa the case, you will save in down
markets and can probably be using those savings for wealth generation. Conversely, in an up market, you may see your savings affected badly. (If the up market prevails for a prolonged period it may affect you severely). But, we may be better at managing our own finances better than the governement does with all its political interferences.
Bottomline
Retail fuel prices become
one of the main topics of discussion in and around election times and most
often oil prices are reduced soon after a government is elected. (happend even after the most recent election!). As goverement gets older, it is highly unlikely that they reduce oil prices. (it has not
happened that way before, may be once or twice only). In contrast, tendency to
increase retail prices in the face of increasing global fuel market is very highly
likely, irrespective of elections. Hence, in a declining fuel market, LIOC and
CPC stand to make huge profits and vice versa.
Since our market fuel prices
are government decided we don’t tend to see the same variation in prices that
we see in the global markets. (on a very constant and regular interval, at the extreme case on a daily basis). We are worried now as the world prices are at
historical lows. But, commodity prices are very volatile and we never know when
would they reverse and start increasing. (then we will be surely happy the
price in the local market is fixed, well until the GoSL increase it). However,
due to this mechanism we are immune to global shocks (at least in the short run)
as the government partially hedge us against shocks with their regulated price.